Thursday, October 30, 2014

17 Other Notable Games and Predictions

Hey, the unranked teams count too!

Air Force at Army
Some of our future troops will take part in this one. Having already beaten Navy, Air Force will look to make it two for two and guarantee themselves the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. The Black Knights need this one and then need to beat Navy to beat the Midshipmen for the first time since 2001 and win the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy for what would be the first time since 1996. Problem for Army is their defense is terrible and the offense doesn't do enough to make up for that. The Falcons will score plenty and although their defense could have some issues with Army's triple option, they should come through with the victory in West Point.
My Call: Air Force 38, Army 28

Northwestern at Iowa
Pat Fitzgerald's club befuddles me so much, it's amazing. That probably means whatever pick I make here, the exact opposite will happen. Sorry, Hawkeye fans. You guys can feel free to blame me if Iowa loses this one. I just have a hunch homefield advantage makes the difference here.
My Call: Iowa 28, Northwestern 20

Maryland at Penn State
How do you recover from that double overtime loss to Ohio State where you gave it your all if you're Penn State? To be quite frank, I'm not sure you do recover from that just a week later. However, I can't say this Maryland team inspires a ton of confidence in me, either. With a gun to my head, I'll go with the Nittany Lions just because it's in State College.
My Call: Penn State 26, Maryland 23

Wisconsin at Rutgers
Simple... the Badgers have Melvin Gordon, Rutgers doesn't have a player anywhere near that caliber. Although it won't always be pretty, Wisky rides Gordon to a somewhat comfortable victory.
My Call: Wisconsin 30, Rutgers 17

Central Florida at Connecticut
UConn put together a great effort on the road against East Carolina, but I think that was as much a result of ECU being bored playing against such crappy competition as it was anything else. We'll test that theory in this game since I'm taking the Knights. Their offense may not score a ton, but their defense should be able to shut down what has been simply an anemic Huskies offense.
My Call: Central Florida 27, Connecticut 10

Boston College at Virginia Tech
Although I don't think Boston College has that good a team, I'm just not going to pick Virginia Tech anymore. They seem to let me down every single time I pick them to win. No more! I am no longer a glutton for punishment. I don't have a ton of faith in the Eagles, so I think it'll be close, but they're playing better than the Hokies and till I see Virginia Tech actually win a game, I refuse to put my good predicting name behind them. Especially when Michael Brewer makes Carson Palmer look like Peyton Manning as a decision maker.
My Call: Boston College 24, Virginia Tech 17

North Carolina at Miami (FL)
Yes, UNC did go on the road and beat Virginia last week. However, I just don't see the Hurricane offense led by star running back Duke Johnson as well as true freshman QB Brad Kaaya making the same mistakes the Hoos did. Fun day for the Miami offense; not so much for the defense, but the 'D' won't necessarily need to be wonderful to win.
My Call: Miami (FL) 44, North Carolina 30

Washington at Colorado
If I had any faith at all in the defense of the Buffaloes, I'd call for the upset to be sprung here. Alas, I don't. It's why I'll go with Washington in a nailbiter.
My Call: Washington 31, Colorado 28

NC State at Syracuse
Terrible offensive clubs go at it in the Carrier Dome. In a good old fashioned pillow fight, I'll take the Orange to get their fourth win of the season.
My Call: Syracuse 17, NC State 13

Virginia at Georgia Tech
Although common knowledge usually says to go with the better defensive team, it can also say to go with the better offensive team, especially when the team with the better defense is not good offensively and it's a home game for the better offensive club. The Yellow Jackets are the selection.
My Call: Georgia Tech 30, Virginia 27

Indiana at Michigan
A battle of the incompetents. I know I've been burned by Michigan before and may well get burned by them again, but I'll take em by 4.
My Call: Michigan 35, Indiana 31

Kentucky at Missouri
Just don't have much of a feel for this one at all other than I think it'll be closer than the 6.5 points Missouri is favored by. Kentucky is middle of the road both offensively and defensively. Mizzou is a solid defensive team but because Matty Mauk has struggled this season, the Tigers offense has also struggled. The smart money is probably in Missouri, but I'm gonna gamble some and take the Wildcats. I have a feeling no matter who I pick, I'll regret it.
My Call: Kentucky 24, Missouri 23


USC at Washington State
What you saw against Utah in Salt Lake City pretty much sums up USC this year. They have A LOT of trouble closing out close games. My guess is they'll put up more points than they usually do against a bad Cougars defense, but because Wazzu has a very good passing game, the Trojans will let them back in it and give their fans another scare that they may blow another game late, but this time, they'll hold on and escape Pullman victorious.
My Call: USC 48, Washington State 41

Colorado State at San Jose State
Gotta go with the Rams. Jim McElwain has Colorado State back to a solid level of play, something I was used to seeing from them growing up before they had a few down years prior to his arrival.
My Call: Colorado State 34, San Jose State 28

Texas at Texas Tech
Remember six years ago back in 2008 when this game had national championship implications and Texas Tech won at the last second on a great catch by Michael Crabtree on a pass from Graham Harrell? So do I. This game features no such storyline. What it does feature is two 3-5 teams just looking to gain a confidence booster. Although you would think the two running backs (Malcolm Brown and Jonathan Gray) as well as QB Tyrone Swoopes should be able to have success against a God awful Tech run defense, the Longhorn run offense hasn't exactly lit the world on fire this year. I'll take Texas since they have shown me they can play halfway decently against solid opponents such as UCLA, Oklahoma and Baylor. Not much faith here though.
My Call: Texas 31, Texas Tech 24

Tennessee at South Carolina
Other than the Georgia game and perhaps the East Carolina game, South Carolina may have put forth their best effort of the season in a hard fought 42-35 loss on the road to Auburn. The defense being unable to stop the Tiger offense and a couple red zone interceptions thrown by QB Dylan Thompson did them in. I think they should be able to get back on track against the Vols. The defense may give up a few more points than they should, but I think their offense makes up for that.
My Call: South Carolina 38, Tennessee 27

California at Oregon State
Sean Mannion and Jared Goff should light up the scoreboard in a battle of two solid QBs. Difference between the two teams is at least the Beavers defense is capable of stopping an opposing offense here and there. Cal's defense just isn't there yet. Gotta go with Oregon State.
My Call: Oregon State 48, California 34

Top 25 Predictions (sans Auburn)

This past week of college football was a bit more uneventful than the last as the only major change at the top came with an Ole Miss loss to LSU. My record picking games was 23-7 which ran my overall record of predicting games this season to 210-73. We're going at almost a 75 percent success rate here. We're gonna look to get it up to that 75 percent success rate or potentially a few percentage points better with what will hopefully be another successful week of picking games. Gotta say no matter who wins this coming week, there will be a handful of ranked teams to fall. Here we go...

Arkansas at #1 Mississippi State
While trips to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama and Oxford to face in-state rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl remain, this game with Arkansas is the first order of business. Does this game scream out trap to you? Although I'll admit the Razorbacks are better than they were a year ago, it does not seem like a trap game to me where the Bulldogs will get caught with their pants down. Personally I think Dak Prescott will have a huge game and Mississippi State will roll, even with Dak's foot in a walking boot as a precaution after an injury sustained during the Kentucky game.
My Call: Mississippi State 45, Arkansas 20

#2 Florida State at Louisville
For the Seminoles, a Thursday night trip to Louisville seems like a spot somewhat similar to the one Ohio State was just in when they went to Penn State for a night game and faced a hostile crowd, escaping with a victory in two overtimes. Do I think FSU will need two overtimes to escape Louisville with a win or do I even think it's possible they'll lose? Sure, anything's possible, but I don't think the Cardinals have the necessary offense to pull this one off. Their defense will played inspired and the crowd will be nuts, but it's something Jameis Winston and Co. will ultimately be able to handle. After a close first half, a couple second half scores allow the Noles to take command.
My Call: Florida State 31, Louisville 21

Stanford at #5 Oregon
Arch nemesis Stanford has been a major thorn in Oregon's side the last few seasons. This year, it seems like the tables may be ripe to be turned. Although the Cardinal still bring that same physical defense, their offense is less than stellar and has a ton of trouble in the red zone. That just won't work if they want to beat the Ducks yet again. My guess is the Oregon offense will face a tough test and not be at their best, but that the defense will slow down a vulnerable Cardinal offense more than enough to come away with a win and a measure of revenge.
My Call: Oregon 31, Stanford 17

Navy vs. #6 Notre Dame (at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland)
It'll have been two long weeks since that heartbreaking loss in Tallahassee to Florida State when the Irish take the field against the Midshipmen. That would put Notre Dame in a vulnerable spot against a better team, but Navy won't be the type of team which will be able to take advantage of this. Their defense just isn't good enough and although the offense could have a couple moments, the Irish defense is just way too strong for their one dimensional attack. It could take a quarter and a half or even a whole half like it did against Purdue, but Notre Dame will get it going and pull away.
My Call: Notre Dame 37, Navy 17

Florida vs. #8 Georgia (at Everbank Field in Jacksonville, Florida)
World's Largest Cocktail Party may be turned into the biggest keep or fire Florida coach Will Muschamp debate this weekend. Gator fans undoubtedly want him ousted while Georgia fans are hoping Florida decides to keep him around a while longer. Seriously though, I think this is gonna be one of those games where although there isn't any doubt who the better team is, you'll get the best effort from the underdog Gators since this is a rivalry game and all. Unfortunately, the Gators just don't have enough offense and that should allow the Dawgs to gradually take control in the 2nd half.
My Call: Georgia 30, Florida 13

#10 TCU at #20 West Virginia
Couple surprise contenders in the Big 12 go at it this weekend. TCU is 11 and a half excruciating minutes away from being undefeated while West Virginia is playing about as well as anyone right now. Since the game is in Morgantown, I'm gonna go with the Mountaineers. They took out #4 Baylor a couple weeks back and I think the Horned Frogs are next. That said, it could come down to which team has the ball last as my guess is this will be a shootout for the ages.
My Call: West Virginia 56, TCU 52

Oklahoma State at #11 Kansas State
Big problem for the Pokes going into Manhattan... they are struggling mightily on the offensive side of the ball while K-State is excellent defensively. The Cowboy defense will do their best and play pretty well, but the Cats will find the right formula behind Jake Waters sooner or later and take full command of this one towards the end of the 2nd quarter.
My Call: Kansas State 30, Oklahoma State 10

Kansas at #12 Baylor
Won't be a contest. Bryce Petty and that high powered Bears offense will pounce early and often while the Jayhawks are helpless to stop it. Plus they don't have the talent offensively to answer all of the points that will be scored. Don't be surprised if the reserves get action early in the 2nd half.
My Call: Baylor 55, Kansas 13

Illinois at #13 Ohio State
Alright, I have to admit Illinois surprised me with their upset of Minnesota last week. That said though, there's a HUGE difference between Minnesota at home and Ohio State at the Horseshoe. Hope of a second straight upset will die early for the Illini as the Buckeye offense runs wild while their defensive line brings the heat early and often.
My Call: Ohio State 48, Illinois 17

#14 Arizona at #25 UCLA
Had to go take a look at the standings in the Pac 12 South. This is a HUGE game for UCLA to win if they want any hope of winning the Pac 12 South title. The winner of the Pac 12 South of course plays the winner of the Pac 12 North in the Pac 12 Championship game. The Bruins sit with two losses and will want to avoid a third so they don't fall two losses behind either a one loss Utah or one loss Arizona State team. It's also a big game for Arizona as they'll want to keep pace with the one loss team; whether that's Utah or ASU. I'm going to say the desperate Bruins find a way behind Brett Hundley to pull it off. Although UCLA has not looked good at all even in wins the last couple weeks against Cal and Colorado, something tells me they rise to the challenge and squeak by late.
My Call: UCLA 28, Arizona 27

#18 Utah at #15 Arizona State
Interesting dilemma facing the Sun Devils facing a huge Pac 12 game the week before Notre Dame is set to visit Tempe. As stated in the Arizona/UCLA short analysis, both these teams come into this game with just one conference loss and with the exception of Colorado, anyone could still win the Pac 12 South with just one conference loss separating these two teams, UCLA, Arizona and USC.  If ASU was still playing poor defensively, I'd be inclined to think Utah would pull this one off. However, their defense has been playing much better these last couple of games. The Utah defense is very good itself and that should keep them in the game, but in a game where you think both defenses can be successful, you've got to go with the team you think can make a big play offensively to come out victorious. That team to me in this one is Arizona State.
My Call: Arizona State 23, Utah 20

Purdue at #17 Nebraska
Not to try and be disrespectful to Purdue, but they'll be little more than a tuneup for Nebraska before the true test for the Huskers comes in their last three games. Those three games include a home date with Minnesota and road games at Iowa and Wisconsin. Ameer Abdullah runs wild again. If it weren't for Dak Prescott and Marcus Mariotta, Ameer may be the guy everyone is talking about as the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy. But a win here will suit him just fine.
My Call: Nebraska 45, Purdue 20

#19 Oklahoma at Iowa State
Been a disappointing year in Norman for the Sooners as this once top four team has stumbled a couple of times in conference play to TCU and Kansas State and as a result, stumbled all the way down to number 19 in the AP Poll. QB Trevor Knight just hasn't quite put together the same success he had in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama about ten and a half months ago. That being said, the Sooners should be able to use their talent alone to win this one. Iowa State is basically a lot like Kansas State, except less talented and not as well coached. Effort will only get them so far.
My Call: Oklahoma 34, Iowa State 13

#21 East Carolina at Temple
Is it just me or is East Carolina perhaps bored due to the lack of quality teams on their schedule? That could help explain what was a much closer game against a bad UConn team than it should have been. If they aren't careful, perhaps one of these teams in the American Conference could bite them. I can't imagine that team will be Temple though. Their offense is terrible; too much so even to beat what again could be a bored ECU team.
My Call: East Carolina 27, Temple 13

#24 Duke at Pittsburgh
My guess is the Panthers will actually match up better with Duke than they did against Georgia Tech given that the Blue Devils don't exactly have a high powered offense, but I still see another loss coming for them. Duke will use their strong defense to keep the Panthers offense at bay and although they won't light up the scoreboard, they'll put up enough points against a less than stellar Pitt defense. Sorry Mark May, I know you're a Pitt guy, but not this week.
My Call: Duke 27, Pittsburgh 17

Auburn Game Preview and Prediction (at Ole Miss)

The title of this week's blog essentially sums up the meaning of this game between one loss teams in Auburn and Ole Miss in Oxford. Winner stays alive in not only the SEC West and SEC title, but also for a possible shot in the four team College Football Playoff which makes its debut this season. The loser can very likely forget about either of those and will just have to worry about making the best bowl game possible. Auburn survived a major scare from a desperate South Carolina team which put together a great offensive game plan. That's what can happen when you make a great coach like Steve Spurrier such a huge underdog, but the Tigers won 42-35 on the strength of an outstanding offensive performance and two interceptions in the end zone off of Dylan Thompson throws. Ole Miss wasn't as fortunate, suffering a 10-7 setback against LSU in Baton Rouge. Despite winning the turnover battle 4 to 1 and playing outstanding defense, a poor offensive performance and a couple silly mistakes at the end of the game did the Rebels in. This is a shot at redemption for both clubs. Auburn lost once in the state of Mississippi this year, to Mississippi State by a 38-23 score. They get to try their luck again. Ole Miss not only wants redemption for the LSU loss, but also for a 30-22 defeat at the hands of Auburn in Jordan-Hare Stadium a year ago.

In that game, Auburn QB Nick Marshall ran for 140 yards and a couple TDs. Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace threw for 336 yards and a couple scores, but he also threw two interceptions and wasn't helped by his offensive line, which allowed him to be sacked six times. Prior to the loss to LSU, Ole Miss had won their first seven games and risen to number three in the country in both polls. Their biggest win came at home against Alabama. In addition to that win, the Rebels have accumulated home wins over Louisiana-Lafayette, Memphis and Tennessee; road wins against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M and a win at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta over Boise State. Ole Miss will bring to the table a much different type of team than Auburn saw when they played South Carolina. Unlike South Carolina, Ole Miss is a fantastic defensive team. They rank first in the FBS in points allowed, allowing just 10.5 points per game. The most scored against them in a game was 20 by Texas A&M; 13 of those 20 points came in the 4th quarter after the Rebels already built a commanding 35-7 lead. And these guys do it in every way imaginable on the defensive side; ranking top 10 in the country in rush yards allowed per game and top 25 in pass yards per game.  This defense also ranks tops in most interceptions with 17 as well as interceptions returned for TDs with three. They aren't as highly ranked in terms of sacks and forced fumbles, but who really cares when you're a defense that's putting up the type of numbers I just posted? Exactly.

Although the most well known name on the Ole Miss front seven may be true sophomore defensive tackle/end Robert Nkemdiche (Robert has an older brother on the team, Denzel, who is a linebacker), the man with the most production stats wise is Marquis Haynes which is very impressive considering he is just a true freshman. He originally committed to North Carolina as part of the 2013 recruiting class, but it appears he may have had some academic issues which caused him to go to school at Fork Union Military Academy in Virginia for a year. On the season, he has 6.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss. Amazingly enough, Haynes was not that highly thought of coming out of high school in Florida being rated as just a three star guy (out of a possible five stars). He may have only had three stars by his name during the recruiting period, but he's made about a 10 star impact at Ole Miss so far. Although his fast emergence may surprise some people outside the program, it surprises nobody at Ole Miss. Coach Hugh Freeze and his teammates were raving about him well before the season began; now everyone else is taking notice. We also can't forget about a couple guys in the secondary. Their most well known player to NFL scouts is free safety Cody Prewitt, and he's a very good one. However, the most productive man has been corner Senquez Golson. He has picked off 8 passes so far through 8 games. Not only is he a big part of that defense, his name has to be rising fast on NFL draft boards as a result.

Although the Rebel offense hasn't matched up to their defensive counterparts, they haven't been too bad other than the LSU game which was a struggle from start to finish. QB Bo Wallace was just 14 of 33 passing for 176 yards, a touchdown and in interception. On the year, he has thrown for 2075 yards with 18 TD passes and 7 interceptions. Three of those picks came in the opening game against Boise State. Bo had an excellent game in the Ole Miss victory over Alabama, throwing for 250 yards on 18 of 31 passing with 3 TDs and no interceptions. He's somewhat similar to Kansas State QB Jake Waters in that although he's not the best/quickest guy, he is capable of running for yards if need be.  Ole Miss likes to split carries amongst their running backs; the leader stats wise would be Jaylen Walton. He has rushed for 376 yards and 4 TDs on the year. He had a rough go of it against LSU, gaining just 29 yards on 12 carries. Like with their rushing, the Rebels will spread the wealth when they throw it. Although their leading receiver from the last two years and a guy who torched Auburn last year in Donte Moncrief is gone to the NFL (Indianapolis Colts), there's still plenty of talent in this WR core. Their best/most talented/well known receiver is true sophomore Laquon Treadwell. As a true freshman a year ago, he caught 72 balls for 608 yards and five scores. This year he's upped those projections a bit as through 8 games, he's caught 38 balls for 528 yards and four scores. Vince Sanders and Cody Core have also provided solid, steady production. Core was the recipient of the only TD Ole Miss had against LSU. On the season, he's caught 26 balls for 390 yards and five scores. Williams was very quiet in the LSU game, catching just one pass for seven yards. On the year, he's caught 27 balls for 431 yards and four scores. So although this group may not catch a ton of balls as individuals, they are tall and very capable of the big play. By the way, Cody Core came right out of Auburn at Auburn High School in the 2012 recruiting class. He was only a two star coming out of high school, so not that highly regarded. Although he did claim offers from Ole Miss and Kentucky in the SEC, so there could have been some raw talent even without the high ranking.

To come out of the state of Mississippi with a split, Auburn will need to take far better care of the ball in Oxford than they did in Starkville. Four turnovers just won't cut it. To me, these Rebels are a little bit like a team they saw earlier in the year, the Kansas State Wildcats. Except I'd say Ole Miss has more talent while K-State is better coached. That's not a knock on Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze, but rather an acknowledgement of how great Wildcat coach Bill Snyder is. Anyway, to get back to Freeze, he and Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn maintain a friendship. They like to talk to each other over the phone every week or two. Something tells me they may not be talking over the phone this week and will save the pleasantries for sometime before the game for a few minutes. Judging by the defensive performance against South Carolina, my guess is Auburn will need to score at least 30 points to win this game. Possible? Yes. Likely? I'm not so sure. Then again, this pick could be me hoping for a reverse jinx. We'll see how that goes. Yes, I'm picking against my own team but am hoping for said reverse jinx or hoping to be wrong. Whichever way you want to look at it.

My Call: Ole Miss 27, Auburn 23