This past week of college football was a bit more uneventful than the last as the only major change at the top came with an Ole Miss loss to LSU. My record picking games was 23-7 which ran my overall record of predicting games this season to 210-73. We're going at almost a 75 percent success rate here. We're gonna look to get it up to that 75 percent success rate or potentially a few percentage points better with what will hopefully be another successful week of picking games. Gotta say no matter who wins this coming week, there will be a handful of ranked teams to fall. Here we go...
Arkansas at #1 Mississippi State
While trips to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama and Oxford to face in-state rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl remain, this game with Arkansas is the first order of business. Does this game scream out trap to you? Although I'll admit the Razorbacks are better than they were a year ago, it does not seem like a trap game to me where the Bulldogs will get caught with their pants down. Personally I think Dak Prescott will have a huge game and Mississippi State will roll, even with Dak's foot in a walking boot as a precaution after an injury sustained during the Kentucky game.
My Call: Mississippi State 45, Arkansas 20
#2 Florida State at Louisville
For the Seminoles, a Thursday night trip to Louisville seems like a spot somewhat similar to the one Ohio State was just in when they went to Penn State for a night game and faced a hostile crowd, escaping with a victory in two overtimes. Do I think FSU will need two overtimes to escape Louisville with a win or do I even think it's possible they'll lose? Sure, anything's possible, but I don't think the Cardinals have the necessary offense to pull this one off. Their defense will played inspired and the crowd will be nuts, but it's something Jameis Winston and Co. will ultimately be able to handle. After a close first half, a couple second half scores allow the Noles to take command.
My Call: Florida State 31, Louisville 21
Stanford at #5 Oregon
Arch nemesis Stanford has been a major thorn in Oregon's side the last few seasons. This year, it seems like the tables may be ripe to be turned. Although the Cardinal still bring that same physical defense, their offense is less than stellar and has a ton of trouble in the red zone. That just won't work if they want to beat the Ducks yet again. My guess is the Oregon offense will face a tough test and not be at their best, but that the defense will slow down a vulnerable Cardinal offense more than enough to come away with a win and a measure of revenge.
My Call: Oregon 31, Stanford 17
Navy vs. #6 Notre Dame (at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland)
It'll have been two long weeks since that heartbreaking loss in Tallahassee to Florida State when the Irish take the field against the Midshipmen. That would put Notre Dame in a vulnerable spot against a better team, but Navy won't be the type of team which will be able to take advantage of this. Their defense just isn't good enough and although the offense could have a couple moments, the Irish defense is just way too strong for their one dimensional attack. It could take a quarter and a half or even a whole half like it did against Purdue, but Notre Dame will get it going and pull away.
My Call: Notre Dame 37, Navy 17
Florida vs. #8 Georgia (at Everbank Field in Jacksonville, Florida)
World's Largest Cocktail Party may be turned into the biggest keep or fire Florida coach Will Muschamp debate this weekend. Gator fans undoubtedly want him ousted while Georgia fans are hoping Florida decides to keep him around a while longer. Seriously though, I think this is gonna be one of those games where although there isn't any doubt who the better team is, you'll get the best effort from the underdog Gators since this is a rivalry game and all. Unfortunately, the Gators just don't have enough offense and that should allow the Dawgs to gradually take control in the 2nd half.
My Call: Georgia 30, Florida 13
#10 TCU at #20 West Virginia
Couple surprise contenders in the Big 12 go at it this weekend. TCU is 11 and a half excruciating minutes away from being undefeated while West Virginia is playing about as well as anyone right now. Since the game is in Morgantown, I'm gonna go with the Mountaineers. They took out #4 Baylor a couple weeks back and I think the Horned Frogs are next. That said, it could come down to which team has the ball last as my guess is this will be a shootout for the ages.
My Call: West Virginia 56, TCU 52
Oklahoma State at #11 Kansas State
Big problem for the Pokes going into Manhattan... they are struggling mightily on the offensive side of the ball while K-State is excellent defensively. The Cowboy defense will do their best and play pretty well, but the Cats will find the right formula behind Jake Waters sooner or later and take full command of this one towards the end of the 2nd quarter.
My Call: Kansas State 30, Oklahoma State 10
Kansas at #12 Baylor
Won't be a contest. Bryce Petty and that high powered Bears offense will pounce early and often while the Jayhawks are helpless to stop it. Plus they don't have the talent offensively to answer all of the points that will be scored. Don't be surprised if the reserves get action early in the 2nd half.
My Call: Baylor 55, Kansas 13
Illinois at #13 Ohio State
Alright, I have to admit Illinois surprised me with their upset of Minnesota last week. That said though, there's a HUGE difference between Minnesota at home and Ohio State at the Horseshoe. Hope of a second straight upset will die early for the Illini as the Buckeye offense runs wild while their defensive line brings the heat early and often.
My Call: Ohio State 48, Illinois 17
#14 Arizona at #25 UCLA
Had to go take a look at the standings in the Pac 12 South. This is a HUGE game for UCLA to win if they want any hope of winning the Pac 12 South title. The winner of the Pac 12 South of course plays the winner of the Pac 12 North in the Pac 12 Championship game. The Bruins sit with two losses and will want to avoid a third so they don't fall two losses behind either a one loss Utah or one loss Arizona State team. It's also a big game for Arizona as they'll want to keep pace with the one loss team; whether that's Utah or ASU. I'm going to say the desperate Bruins find a way behind Brett Hundley to pull it off. Although UCLA has not looked good at all even in wins the last couple weeks against Cal and Colorado, something tells me they rise to the challenge and squeak by late.
My Call: UCLA 28, Arizona 27
#18 Utah at #15 Arizona State
Interesting dilemma facing the Sun Devils facing a huge Pac 12 game the week before Notre Dame is set to visit Tempe. As stated in the Arizona/UCLA short analysis, both these teams come into this game with just one conference loss and with the exception of Colorado, anyone could still win the Pac 12 South with just one conference loss separating these two teams, UCLA, Arizona and USC. If ASU was still playing poor defensively, I'd be inclined to think Utah would pull this one off. However, their defense has been playing much better these last couple of games. The Utah defense is very good itself and that should keep them in the game, but in a game where you think both defenses can be successful, you've got to go with the team you think can make a big play offensively to come out victorious. That team to me in this one is Arizona State.
My Call: Arizona State 23, Utah 20
Purdue at #17 Nebraska
Not to try and be disrespectful to Purdue, but they'll be little more than a tuneup for Nebraska before the true test for the Huskers comes in their last three games. Those three games include a home date with Minnesota and road games at Iowa and Wisconsin. Ameer Abdullah runs wild again. If it weren't for Dak Prescott and Marcus Mariotta, Ameer may be the guy everyone is talking about as the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy. But a win here will suit him just fine.
My Call: Nebraska 45, Purdue 20
#19 Oklahoma at Iowa State
Been a disappointing year in Norman for the Sooners as this once top four team has stumbled a couple of times in conference play to TCU and Kansas State and as a result, stumbled all the way down to number 19 in the AP Poll. QB Trevor Knight just hasn't quite put together the same success he had in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama about ten and a half months ago. That being said, the Sooners should be able to use their talent alone to win this one. Iowa State is basically a lot like Kansas State, except less talented and not as well coached. Effort will only get them so far.
My Call: Oklahoma 34, Iowa State 13
#21 East Carolina at Temple
Is it just me or is East Carolina perhaps bored due to the lack of quality teams on their schedule? That could help explain what was a much closer game against a bad UConn team than it should have been. If they aren't careful, perhaps one of these teams in the American Conference could bite them. I can't imagine that team will be Temple though. Their offense is terrible; too much so even to beat what again could be a bored ECU team.
My Call: East Carolina 27, Temple 13
#24 Duke at Pittsburgh
My guess is the Panthers will actually match up better with Duke than they did against Georgia Tech given that the Blue Devils don't exactly have a high powered offense, but I still see another loss coming for them. Duke will use their strong defense to keep the Panthers offense at bay and although they won't light up the scoreboard, they'll put up enough points against a less than stellar Pitt defense. Sorry Mark May, I know you're a Pitt guy, but not this week.
My Call: Duke 27, Pittsburgh 17
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