The title of this week's blog essentially sums up the meaning of this game between one loss teams in Auburn and Ole Miss in Oxford. Winner stays alive in not only the SEC West and SEC title, but also for a possible shot in the four team College Football Playoff which makes its debut this season. The loser can very likely forget about either of those and will just have to worry about making the best bowl game possible. Auburn survived a major scare from a desperate South Carolina team which put together a great offensive game plan. That's what can happen when you make a great coach like Steve Spurrier such a huge underdog, but the Tigers won 42-35 on the strength of an outstanding offensive performance and two interceptions in the end zone off of Dylan Thompson throws. Ole Miss wasn't as fortunate, suffering a 10-7 setback against LSU in Baton Rouge. Despite winning the turnover battle 4 to 1 and playing outstanding defense, a poor offensive performance and a couple silly mistakes at the end of the game did the Rebels in. This is a shot at redemption for both clubs. Auburn lost once in the state of Mississippi this year, to Mississippi State by a 38-23 score. They get to try their luck again. Ole Miss not only wants redemption for the LSU loss, but also for a 30-22 defeat at the hands of Auburn in Jordan-Hare Stadium a year ago.
In that game, Auburn QB Nick Marshall ran for 140 yards and a couple TDs. Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace threw for 336 yards and a couple scores, but he also threw two interceptions and wasn't helped by his offensive line, which allowed him to be sacked six times. Prior to the loss to LSU, Ole Miss had won their first seven games and risen to number three in the country in both polls. Their biggest win came at home against Alabama. In addition to that win, the Rebels have accumulated home wins over Louisiana-Lafayette, Memphis and Tennessee; road wins against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M and a win at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta over Boise State. Ole Miss will bring to the table a much different type of team than Auburn saw when they played South Carolina. Unlike South Carolina, Ole Miss is a fantastic defensive team. They rank first in the FBS in points allowed, allowing just 10.5 points per game. The most scored against them in a game was 20 by Texas A&M; 13 of those 20 points came in the 4th quarter after the Rebels already built a commanding 35-7 lead. And these guys do it in every way imaginable on the defensive side; ranking top 10 in the country in rush yards allowed per game and top 25 in pass yards per game. This defense also ranks tops in most interceptions with 17 as well as interceptions returned for TDs with three. They aren't as highly ranked in terms of sacks and forced fumbles, but who really cares when you're a defense that's putting up the type of numbers I just posted? Exactly.
Although the most well known name on the Ole Miss front seven may be true sophomore defensive tackle/end Robert Nkemdiche (Robert has an older brother on the team, Denzel, who is a linebacker), the man with the most production stats wise is Marquis Haynes which is very impressive considering he is just a true freshman. He originally committed to North Carolina as part of the 2013 recruiting class, but it appears he may have had some academic issues which caused him to go to school at Fork Union Military Academy in Virginia for a year. On the season, he has 6.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss. Amazingly enough, Haynes was not that highly thought of coming out of high school in Florida being rated as just a three star guy (out of a possible five stars). He may have only had three stars by his name during the recruiting period, but he's made about a 10 star impact at Ole Miss so far. Although his fast emergence may surprise some people outside the program, it surprises nobody at Ole Miss. Coach Hugh Freeze and his teammates were raving about him well before the season began; now everyone else is taking notice. We also can't forget about a couple guys in the secondary. Their most well known player to NFL scouts is free safety Cody Prewitt, and he's a very good one. However, the most productive man has been corner Senquez Golson. He has picked off 8 passes so far through 8 games. Not only is he a big part of that defense, his name has to be rising fast on NFL draft boards as a result.
Although the Rebel offense hasn't matched up to their defensive counterparts, they haven't been too bad other than the LSU game which was a struggle from start to finish. QB Bo Wallace was just 14 of 33 passing for 176 yards, a touchdown and in interception. On the year, he has thrown for 2075 yards with 18 TD passes and 7 interceptions. Three of those picks came in the opening game against Boise State. Bo had an excellent game in the Ole Miss victory over Alabama, throwing for 250 yards on 18 of 31 passing with 3 TDs and no interceptions. He's somewhat similar to Kansas State QB Jake Waters in that although he's not the best/quickest guy, he is capable of running for yards if need be. Ole Miss likes to split carries amongst their running backs; the leader stats wise would be Jaylen Walton. He has rushed for 376 yards and 4 TDs on the year. He had a rough go of it against LSU, gaining just 29 yards on 12 carries. Like with their rushing, the Rebels will spread the wealth when they throw it. Although their leading receiver from the last two years and a guy who torched Auburn last year in Donte Moncrief is gone to the NFL (Indianapolis Colts), there's still plenty of talent in this WR core. Their best/most talented/well known receiver is true sophomore Laquon Treadwell. As a true freshman a year ago, he caught 72 balls for 608 yards and five scores. This year he's upped those projections a bit as through 8 games, he's caught 38 balls for 528 yards and four scores. Vince Sanders and Cody Core have also provided solid, steady production. Core was the recipient of the only TD Ole Miss had against LSU. On the season, he's caught 26 balls for 390 yards and five scores. Williams was very quiet in the LSU game, catching just one pass for seven yards. On the year, he's caught 27 balls for 431 yards and four scores. So although this group may not catch a ton of balls as individuals, they are tall and very capable of the big play. By the way, Cody Core came right out of Auburn at Auburn High School in the 2012 recruiting class. He was only a two star coming out of high school, so not that highly regarded. Although he did claim offers from Ole Miss and Kentucky in the SEC, so there could have been some raw talent even without the high ranking.
To come out of the state of Mississippi with a split, Auburn will need to take far better care of the ball in Oxford than they did in Starkville. Four turnovers just won't cut it. To me, these Rebels are a little bit like a team they saw earlier in the year, the Kansas State Wildcats. Except I'd say Ole Miss has more talent while K-State is better coached. That's not a knock on Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze, but rather an acknowledgement of how great Wildcat coach Bill Snyder is. Anyway, to get back to Freeze, he and Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn maintain a friendship. They like to talk to each other over the phone every week or two. Something tells me they may not be talking over the phone this week and will save the pleasantries for sometime before the game for a few minutes. Judging by the defensive performance against South Carolina, my guess is Auburn will need to score at least 30 points to win this game. Possible? Yes. Likely? I'm not so sure. Then again, this pick could be me hoping for a reverse jinx. We'll see how that goes. Yes, I'm picking against my own team but am hoping for said reverse jinx or hoping to be wrong. Whichever way you want to look at it.
My Call: Ole Miss 27, Auburn 23
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